GroupM Forecasts Advertising Recession Will Last Until 2011

WPP’s GroupM, the world’s largest media buyer, said yesterday it expected to see continued declines in media spend through 2010. The forecast, by GroupM futures director Adam Smith, poured cold water on a NY Times article that suggests the agency business is poised for recovery.

Omnicom’s CEO of Diversified Agency Services Thomas L. Harrison told the Times that he believed the agency business was no longer about “managing in a downturn,” but “leading toward the upturn.”

Perhaps not. Here’s what GroupM’s Smith told BMO Capital Markets he thinks will actually happen to adpsend:

• Global spend: -5.5% in 2009, and -1.5% in 2010.
• U.S. spend: -4.3% in 2009, -6.5% in 2010.

Smith also told BMO the U.S. TV upfronts should bring in 10% less revenue this year (driven by lower audiences) with CPMs coming in flat, according to a note to investors by BMO’s Dan Salmon. GroupM buys over $60 billion in media, and thus has a pretty good database of spending info to draw upon.

The news dovetails nicely with something BNET noted on June 20, that WPP chief Martin Sorrell’s people seem to be prepping the market not to expect much good news in his Q2 numbers. Ad Age notes that Publicis Groupe’s ZenithOptimedia forecasts a similar set of declines.

• See previous coverage of WPP:
• WPP: Sorrell Sees No New Client Dollars; Layoffs Possible in Europe; Zimbabwe Eyes an Opportunity
• Could WPP Chief Sorrell’s Successor Be Lord Stephen Carter?
• WPP Stock Down 11% as CEO Sorrell Gets $95 Mil. Pay Package. Coincidence?
• At WPP, Sorrell’s $95 Mil. Pay Package Gathers More Foes — But Passes Anyway
• WPP’s Sorrell Wants $95 Million Pay Package; Sparks Protest at “Unnecessarily Complex” Scheme
  
• WPP Alleges “Secret Payments” Spoiled Deal With George Patterson, Communications Group
• WPP’s Sorrell Dusts Off Latest Wacky Recovery Metaphor: “An Italic L, Flipping Up”
• Sorrell Prepares to Leave WPP Amid 7,000 Layoffs
• WPP Q1: Debt Doubles; “It’s All Lehman Brothers’ Fault”
• WPP Accuses Spot Runner of $54 Million Scam; Was Sorrell Asleep at the Wheel?
• The Enfatico Fiasco: Isn’t This All Dell’s Fault?
• WPP’s Sorrell Calls Publicis’ Levy “Callous” in Remarks on Recession
• Sorrell’s Interest in Branded Content Is Explained by WPP’s Finances
• WPP’s Layoffs Plan Explained — Wall Street Doesn’t Believe Sorrell’s Rosy View of the Future