Could Daimler and Its Luxury Rivals Lead a More General Auto Recovery?

Luxury brands could be starting the second half of a “last in, first out” sales pattern — that is, luxury brands tend to be the last in and first out of a recession.

It’s a good sign for the rest of the auto industry if a current uptick in luxury brands signals an eventual upturn for big-volume brands as well.

Mercedes-Benz parent Daimler AG yesterday announced pre-tax earnings of about $700 million. That was down about 27 percent from the year-ago quarter, but the Daimler earnings were better than analysts expected, and a reversal of three consecutive quarters of pre-tax losses. Daimler’s complete earnings report is due Oct. 27.

Earlier this month, rival BMW Group said global unit sales increased in September versus the year-ago month by a bare 0.7 percent for all BMW brands combined. That was the first year-over-year increase for BMW in 2009.

Ian Robertson, BMW board member for sales and marketing, said the company expects its sales to continue to increase through the rest of the year. BMW’s third-quarter earnings report is due Nov. 3.

In the United States, BMW sales rose 2.1 percent in September from the year-ago month, according to AutoData Corp. Mini sales gained 9.7 percent, and Rolls-Royce gained 36.8 percent. All three brands belong to the BMW Group.

Porsche last month also said it was “moderately optimistic” for 2010 and predicted the end of the current slump in sales. Porsche’s U.S. sales were up 8.4 percent last month.

Lexus also gained in September, with U.S. sales up 11.8 percent for the month, even though sales were still down year to date.

Chart: Daimler