Toyota, Showing Off a New Car, Points to Peak Oil

Memo to onlookers worried that American consumers will never stop buying gas guzzlers: They may soon lack the choice to not change. That was the message of Toyota vice president Irv Miller, who warned at the Detroit Auto Show that last summers $4-a-gallon gas prices were but a “brief glimpse of the future” that come about with the advent of peak oil.

Peak oil, the theory that oil production will soon hit a high point and thereafter decline, has survived in various corners of academia, industry and conspiracy theory for years. But it’s a bit unusual to hear the term bandied about by top executives at big events. Could Toyota be testing out a new marketing message, or is Miller a true believer?

Miller’s entire speech was a marketing event, of sorts; he was there to introduce the FT-EV, an all-electric city vehicle Toyota plans to have in the United States by 2012. The problem is that it will almost certainly cost more than a standard gas-burning car, making the prime impetus to buy the car high gas prices. Thus, it’s actually in Toyota’s interest for another squeeze to occur — or some other event.

That other event could be regulation. California, long a pioneer of laws that later become adopted nationwide, will likely get a fast approval for its stricter interpretation of the Clean Air Act. Outgoing Environmental Protection Agency director Stephen Johnson squashed California’s bid to enact its own tough rules; incoming director Lisa Jackson has promised to “move quickly” on her own review, which will almost certainly come out in favor of the state.

And it won’t take long for other states to pick up the standard, as 15 intend to do so immediately. Car companies will then have a seven year window in which to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions of their car and light truck fleets by 30 percent, which will almost certainly have to occur through heightened fuel efficiency.

President-elect Obama may well move to make the new rule standard across the entire country. Of course, clean air laws can only do so much to influence the buying standards of citizens; those who want wasteful vehicles will still be able to obtain them. The best curative for such desires is high gas prices. That’s one area in which peak oil could certainly help.