Could the Recession Kill Obama's Alternative Energy Package?
An interesting item running in 24/7 Wall St. today, and reprinted in Time, has some scary thoughts for alternative energy mavens. In a nutshell, the argument is that the recession could rapidly worsen to the point that the entire bailout package, which includes funds for energy, broadband and other measures, needs to be diverted to staunch the bleeding.
The title of the piece is “Creating Jobs Trumps Building Bridges,” but you could effectively replace “building bridges” with any other important infrastructure project. The article appears to have been spurred by yesterday’s announcement that a handful of big firms including Caterpillar and General Motors had axed over 75,000 employees. Here’s a bit of it:
There is a powerful argument that the number of people unemployed in the United States could rise by more than 2.5 million people in the first quarter based on the current job situation.. The case that no one wants to mention is that the figure could move above three million.
The economic stimulus bill which should get to the president’s desk in a month is meant to save or create 3 million to 4 million jobs over the next 2 years. That is impossible. The unemployment hole is getting too big too fast…
Tax cuts and rebates are not incentives, at least in an economy that is sinking this fast. The money takes too long to get from the government to the business operator. The system needs something more direct … The single most direct option is for the government to pay a portion of the salary of each net new employee a company hires.
Indeed, the basis for the bailout is that we’re on the low end of a pendulum swing, poised to skim along at the same level for a while before starting to rise back up in 2010. If 24/7 is right, the bob of the pendulum has slipped off the rod and gone flying toward the floor. A loss of over three million jobs this quarter would do terrible damage to the economy.
If that happens, the calls will rise for immediate, on-the-spot action — to the loss of everything else.
Chris Morrison, a reporter on energy, renewables and climate change, is the former lead cleantech writer for VentureBeat. Follow him on Twitter.
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