TNS Media Intelligence's Ad Spend Figures Even Gloomier Than Nielsen's

If you were looking for a somewhat better alternative universe than what Nielsen presented earlier this week in first quarter ad spending numbers, don’t read this post about TNS Media Intelligence’s Q1 numbers. While Nielsen said that U.S. ad spending was down by a dismal 12 percent last quarter, TNS put the number at 14.2 percent, or $30.2 billion.

While down by more than ten percent is awful, no matter who is slicing the data, there are places, given the differences in how Nielsen and TNS measure ad spending, where there are major discrepancies. Here are the places where their numbers diverge:

• TNS’ numbers say that the worst performer by medium was radio, instead of newspapers. Overall, TNS says the medium was down by 26.2 percent, as opposed to newspapers’ 25.5 percent decline. This seems mostly due to TNS putting national spot radio down by 31.7 percent, while Nielsen said that category was down by nine percent.
• TNS showed a 15.4 percent decline in “Spanish Language TV” category; Nielsen showed only a 1.1 percent decline in what it specified as “Spanish Language Cable TV.”
• In Internet display advertising, Nielsen estimated a 3.4 percent decline; TNS recorded an 8.2 percent gain.

So when does the fog of crushing ad revenue declines stop? Unfortunately, it won’t be until the bankruptcies of General Motors and Chrysler have been processed and digested by the media industry. According to Nielsen, automotive factory and dealer advertising — the biggest spending category in advertising — was down by 27.7 percent in Q1 and auto dealer advertising — the sixth largest category — was down by 24.1 percent. I could also print the TNS numbers, but why bother? The point is that these first quarter numbers don’t even reflect the even more severe dietary restrictions bankruptcy is putting on some of media’s biggest consumers of ad space and time.  It’s going to get even worse before it gets better.