August Sales: It's the Same Old Song With a Different Beat

The News: Back to school shopping in August didn’t boost the retail economy the way store chains hoped, and analysts now predict that Christmas shoppers will behave the same way as back-to-school shoppers — searching for bargains and waiting for the last minute to buy.

The Winners: Any brand that communicates “value” captured market share this month, as moms and kids headed for Costco (up 6 percent, net of fuel) and Wal-Mart (up 2.8 percent, net of fuel and Sam’s Club). Groceries and wellness were strong categories at Wal-Mart.

“This is Wal-Mart’s year to eat share,” Dean Hillier, retail expert with management consultant firm A.T. Kearney, told CNN/Money.com.

The Losers: Luxury stores and popular international name brands are beginning to lose their luster, and some suggest that foreign sales will sag as the tourist season ends and airline schedules are cut from overseas. This could be tough news for companies such as Saks (off 5.9 percent) and Nordstrom (off 7.9 percent), whose numbers now depend on strong sales from their New York, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles outposts.

Gap Inc. reported a total downturn of 8 percent. For a change, Old Navy wasn’t the worst performer in the portfolio — this time it was Banana Republic, off 14 percent.

The Takeaway: Smart retailers will not bet the farm on the fourth quarter.