Independence Day Won't Free Retail From June Weather Blues

Mother Nature was not on the side of retail in June, permitting few sunny spots where seasonal products could bask in better sales, and her July temperament may not improve in time for Independence day.

Not in the Northeast, where many found themselves wondering on the first day of summer when winter was going to end. For June, Northeastern cities may attain the highest number of days with precipitation since 1972, according to business weather monitor Planalytics, and New York’s 15 days of rain in June’s first 21 put it on a pace to set a monthly record for days and amount. West into the Great Lakes, Chicago had less rain, 11 days worth, but when it fell it was heavy, so precipitation had a big impact there as well. Los Angeles and southern California haven’t dealt with torrential rain, but cool weather has held down sales of seasonal merchandise there, too. Planalytics notes that the affects on two of the most populous regions of the country will certainly be felt by retailers.

While its warming in much of the United States, and particularly the northeastern quadrant, the more seasonable weather may have come too late to move shorts and t-shirts. Now retailers have a relatively short window to dispose of spring/summer inventory before autumn fashions and fall seasonal goods starts to trickle onto shelves in late July.

Nationwide, along with higher than normal precipitation, June’s second week was the coolest since the period in 2000, Planalytics stated, and unseasonable conditions continued into the week of June 20. Not only that, but Father’s Day was the wettest for 10 years. By sector, weather had the heaviest negative impact – which Planalytics determines by looking at the effect on number of consumers visiting stores or traffic – among multi-department retailers such as Macy’s and Wal-Mart. Home centers were hurt less severely, although they took a hit in the Northeast Coast. Apparel stores that dominate the softlines sector, though, actually experienced a slightly weather positive impact with a good buying atmosphere in the Pacific Northwest boosting traffic.

The economy might have helped retailers mitigate weather impact. Determined to restrain inventories, some retailers have even been willing to face that hardest of places, bare shelves, rather than risk getting caught with unmovable merchandise.

Still, the Fourth of July weekend will be an important opportunity for retailers who need to move some warm-weather merchandise stranded by June weather, as they want to avoid full-on clearances later in July. But, Planalytics noted, the tradition of outdoor activities makes Independence Day one of the most weather impacted of holidays.

Hot temperatures should continue in the South and Central Plains, Planalytics stated, boosting sales of summer products from swimwear and bottled water to fans and ice cream. While retailers in the Northeast and around the Great Lakes region may get something of a lift from demand left over from cool and rainy June, Planalytics anticipates the region’s return to below normal temperatures with scattered showers, so retailers can’t look for help from the weather. Because they are likely to be hit-or-miss, the showers shouldn’t significantly impact outdoor events or travel, which may save retailers tied to tourism or event locations, but that doesn’t improve prospect for mall operators who might have been an alternative to Independence Day wash outs.

Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are likely in the West Coast and Pacific Northwest regions. Periods of rain in Northwest up through the Canadian Pacific region could have an impact where they linger, but overall most of the area should be dry, leading to pleasant conditions conducive to good holiday weekend selling.