Survey Says: Biotech Investors Cry Over Genentech (And More)

Do you cry yourself to sleep at night because you miss Genentech so much? Fifty-eight percent of investors do, according to a survey of 261 buy-siders conducted by Mark Schoenebaum and the biotech analyst team at Deutsche Bank.

Other survey findings provide a glimpse into Wall Street’s expectations for the data read-outs, FDA decisions and other game-changing biotech events coming in the second half of the year. And the survey says…

• Amgen’s future is riding on denosumab, and most folks expect the FDA to approve the bone loss drug by its scheduled Oct. 19 action date. As to the outcome of a Phase III trial in bone cancer patients, 77 percent of investors expect denosumab to prove non-inferior to Novartis’ Zometa (zoledronic acid), while 21 percent expect superiority and 1 percent expect inferiority.
• An FDA decision is pending for Oct 22 on Acorda Therapeutics’ Fampridine-SR, designed to improve walking ability in multiple sclerosis patients. Twenty-six percent of investors think the approval will indeed come in the fourth quarter, while 24 percent expect approval to come in early 2010 and 17 percent think the drug will never get the green-light.
• Investors have a slightly rosier outlook for United Therapeutics’ Tyvaso, an inhaled version of pulmonary arterial hypertension drug Remodulin (treprostinil). About 35 percent expect approval by the July 30 action date, while 37 percent expect approval by the end of the year.
• Celgene’s anti-inflammatory drug apremilast recently met its Phase II endpoints in arthritis, and psoriasis data are due later this year. On a scale of one to 10, with one being a complete failure and 10 being a miracle drug, 26 percent of investors predict the upcoming data will be a “five,” while 21 percent said “three,” 19 percent said “four” and 18 percent said “six.”
• Genzyme’s been struggling for FDA approval of Pompe disease drug Lumizyme (alglucosidase alfa), a scaled-up version of Myozyme. About 52 percent of investors expect to see manufacturing issues resolved in the fourth quarter.
• And finally, first quarter earnings were a disappointment for most of the big biotechs, but investors are crossing their fingers for a better second quarter, with Amgen, Biogen Idec, Genzyme and Celgene expected to hit the mark and Gilead picked to outperform.

I Miss You photo by Flickr user Chessia, CC2.0