Looks like I was completely wrong. I figured that when seven airlines filed for the right to suspend international flights without penalty for a two year period, the DOT would just go ahead and approve it. Silly me. They denied the request last Thursday.

It was a short and sweet rejection of the application. To sum things up:

While we recognize the concerns cited by the carriers, we also recognize that the market characteristics of each limited entry route are different and that the impact of market forces on individual carriers is different.

Every market has different dynamics, and the government wants to review each dormancy request individually, as they do now. This will allow them to make case-by-case exemptions when necessary. Spirit is likely to be happy about this decision, since they’ve got their eyes on more Latin American flying. It’ll be interesting to see if American is willing to walk away from some of those frequencies knowing they may end up in Spirit’s lap.

But don’t think that this means the DOT will be rejecting everything that comes through. They’ve already apparently authorized Northwest and US Airways to delay their China services without penalty. We’ll just have to see how things are dealt with on a case by case basis.